This is mind-boggling. Russia is 821 days into a 3-day invasion of Ukraine, and this is what they choose to focus on? Starting a border conflict with an EU and NATO member?
The experience for this last year was that once the US stopped supporting Ukraine, the rest of the west folded as well, which let them regain the initiative. I know nothing about anything but it seems like they've learned that with enough patience the US and most NATO allies support will wane with time.
The European NATO members did continue supplying Ukraine. However, the US had previously accounted for roughly half of the total arms supplied and Europe didn't do anything extra to make up for that sudden colossal shortfall.
My guess is that Russia is trying to create a threat to NATO countries so that those countries will want to hold onto their defense materials and weapons instead of those going to Ukraine. Its a short term gambit. NATO countries understand that if the threat exists now, then it will certainly be worse in the future if Ukraine is fully in Russian control.
Not to mention the Russians will have 40 million ukranians to expend on the front line and /or work to death. Plus the Ukranian war industry is pretty impressive, even on global scale.
My guess is that Russia is trying to create a threat to NATO countries so that those countries will want to hold onto their defense materials and weapons instead of those going to Ukraine.