I can’t think of a game that Valve has released just to make money except for Artifact which totally flopped.
From what I understand, Valve has a non-hierarchical internal personnel structure and projects are started because someone has an idea that other people at the company like and want to work on.
Half-Life 3 won’t get traction inside Valve unless it has something to push the envelope like the other main-line games had. Half-Life had unrivaled first person storytelling. Half-Life 2 has unrivaled physics to play with. Half-Life Alyx had an interactive environment unlike anything else that exists even still. My money says if Valve can’t think of something gameplay-wise that’s as enticing right now as any of the previous games had when they were released, they don’t care that the story is still on a cliffhanger.