starman2112 ,
@starman2112@sh.itjust.works avatar

Oops, I changed it to a more unintuitive one right after you replied! In my original comment, I said "you flip two coins, and you only know that at least one of them landed on heads. What is the probability that both landed on heads?"

And... No! Conditional probability strikes again! When you flipped those coins, the four possible outcomes were TT, TH, HT, HH

When you found out that at least one coin landed on heads, all you did was rule out TT. Now the possibilities are HT, TH, and HH. There's actually only a 1/3 chance that both are heads! If I had specified that one particular coin landed on heads, then it would be 50%

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