Well it's not nonsense. If Ukraine does something that helps Trump get elected everyone's fucked. He'll immediate stop supplying Ukraine and start sucking Putin off.
The US isn't saying we'll punish you if you keep doing this, they're just warning them that this can have undesired effects.
Personally, I think we should all accept some pain and just do a full trade embargo on Russia and Israel until they put their military back in their countries where they belong.