t3rmit3 , 2 days ago (edited 2 days ago)

His model was previously based entirely on predicting the popular vote. Now he's switched it to just predict the winner based on EC delegates. I think we'll all be thrilled if Trump loses in November (or ideally, just plain dies), but a statistical model that doesn't factor in things like Republicans trying to pull fake or rogue elector hijinks doesn't fill me with confidence. And who knows what SCOTUS will do if it's thrown to them (Lichtman also predicted Al Gore's 'win').

Also, looking at the list, I'm pretty sure more than 6 are false:

1. True
2. If you inspire 650,000 to conduct write-in votes against you, is that a challenge? In any case, not counting this as False.
3. True
4. Mostly true (and RFK really pulls from Reps anyways, polls show)
5. Debatable, so I won't count
6. Debatable, so I won't count
7. Debatable. He did push a lot of changes, but the number of rightward-changes that happened under his watch (like Roe being overturned, MQD being bolstered, etc) have overshadowed basically everything else)
8. False. This entire year has been non-stop protests, and not just over Gaza (1)
9. False. Whether it was a bullshit thing to prosecute or not (it was), Hunter's conviction is a major talking point on the Right to attack Biden (and specifically, to push independents towards viewing Biden and Trump as equally criminal). (2)
10. False. Between the Afghanistan withdrawl and Gaza, he's got military and foreign policy failures in both flanks' eyes. (3)
11. False. I think that if Republicans had not been paid by the Kremlin to sandbag aid to Ukraine, he might have had one, but as of now Ukraine is not a success, and I can't think of any others that are known to voters. (4)
12. False. He was never considered charismatic like Obama, or a "National Hero". (5)
13. False. Trump's charisma among his base is a trademark of his populist campaign. It's why Trump can dominate the Right and DeSantis falls flat. (6)