Carrolade

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Carrolade ,

That actually sounds like a very interesting question. Regular tennis has far greater cardio load and a slower mental pace. Chess is purely cerebral and memory-heavy while being sedentary, while D&D is an exercise in creativity that is also sedentary.

Carrolade ,

After WW2 everyone felt really bad. And it was a west-leaning country in a region full of oil and big trade routes.

Most of the calculus has slowly changed over the years. The Congressionally-passed treaties all still remain though.

Carrolade ,

While I agree with the broad strokes of what you're saying, we do have enough intelligence penetration into the Russian military to predict an invasion even their own soldiers did not know about. We could potentially find out where their listening stations are. One would have to be very nearby.

Also, we have multiple subs. Revealing one temporarily does not compromise our deterrence. Nor is this move without any value, I think it's important that we occasionally sabre-rattle back at them. It seems to be a language they understand.

All that said, I doubt nuclear WW3 is around the corner with MAD still being the case. I doubt non-nuclear WW3 is around the corner unless China joins Russia in a military alliance. What I do think is within the next few years is chipping away at the Russian economy and morale of the populace until they sue for peace in Ukraine.

Carrolade ,

I agree, that does sound plausible, if they had a listening station nearby.

Carrolade ,

To me it looks like N Korea wanting to acquire some direct combat experience to continue to develop their skills and capabilities.

But yes, personally I was not expecting this.

Carrolade ,

I just don't really see the value of stories like this.

There is a vaccine, and it's not capable of becoming a pandemic when it can only be transmitted through contact.

What is the benefit of updating us every time it mutates? Asides clicks for BBC.

Carrolade ,

We have vaccines, the last outbreak was contained. New ones can be contained as well. There is nothing mobilized support is needed for.

Unless they don't have enough vaccines or something?

Carrolade ,

I see, I wasn't aware the last outbreak had actually spread beyond the region. Thank you for the correction.

That said, I do not think reporting on every possible future pandemic actually helps more than it harms, in the grand scale of global mental health.

Carrolade ,

Funniest comment I've read in a pretty long time, props.

Carrolade ,

makes community about video game arguments.

then makes community about not arguing with me.

Carrolade ,

Pretty sure that if you're a spy, reporter is probably the worst possible cover, since a reporter is already someone that very clearly snoops, and snooping people get watched closely.

I think a much better spy would be a native born Russian, working in a lower-level job where people don't pay a whole lot of attention to them.

Carrolade ,

Whether the CIA is interested in the guy is one thing, they're probably interested in a lot of things. The guy working for them is another.

Spies being interested in you, and being a spy, are not the same thing.

Carrolade ,

Yeah, I think it's pretty easy to say he's not a spy. If he was, he's the dumbest spy in the history of spies.

Carrolade ,

Well, yeah, of course I cannot be certain. I am not that guy. That's why I'm just trying to apply some basic sense. A spy to me is a person doing espionage work specifically for their government. The difference with a journalist is a journalist is not working specifically for their government, and will publicly publish their findings where a spy would usually not.

Carrolade ,

Certainly, a journalist could be an asset or informant or whatever you'd want to call it, for an intelligence service. He's putting himself and his professional reputation at risk though. If the intelligence service wanted x piece of information about whatever, there are simply easier ways to get it. Bribe a Russian.

You don't need to ask the American guy that everyone already knows about and is probably being watched to go look at it for you.

I also haven't heard of any journalists being arrested for espionage in the west.

Carrolade ,

People like saying Israel can't genocide Gazans on their own. They need the US help, just because they say that and they're getting it. Are you sure they're not just lying about really needing it, and couldn't use other, lower-tech methods like starvation or napalm to do it if they were forced to? Or even trebuchets if they really, really felt like it?

It's a very tiring line. I understand wanting to pressure the US to halt military assistance, but do not think that would magically save Gaza. Biden has to deal with the harsh reality that it would not, because this isn't a movie, or a peer-peer war where 1000lb bombs are actually genuinely necessary.

The IDF would take more casualties without 1000lb bombs 155mm artillery shells, definitely. But that's it. They are human beings capable of adaptation and problem-solving, and could solve the problem of how to accomplish a goal without enough explosives.

Now, to fight Hezbollah on the other hand, that's a pretty big army. Probably do need the big bombs for that.

What do you think the Great Filter is?

The Great Filter is the idea that, in the development of life from the earliest stages of abiogenesis to reaching the highest levels of development on the Kardashev scale, there is a barrier to development that makes detectable extraterrestrial life exceedingly rare. The Great Filter is one possible resolution of the Fermi...

Carrolade ,

My guess would be self-replicating biological organisms capable of significant rates of mutation.

But then my preferred solution to the paradox as a whole is basically the "nobody tries" idea.

I don't think there's tremendous reason to try to make ones-self detectable at long distances. It's an expenditure of non-trivial resources for an uncertain result. Since there isn't really any robustly sound logic for making the attempt outside of dramatized sci fi stories, I imagine a vanishingly small percentage of occurrences of intelligent life would make a serious, high-powered attempt at any point.

Lemmy is a failed Reddit alternative

I first joined Lemmy back during the big Reddit exodus of last year. I like many others wanted an alternative to Reddit, and I thought that this might've been the one. I made two accounts, one on lemmy.world and another on sh.itjust.works, in the June of last year that I used on and off for about 4 months....

Carrolade ,

Don't underestimate the power of shitposting.

That said, the Fediverse products are still behind in features, polish and ease-of-use. The mainstream prizes these surface-level things more than any others. It will take years of development still to fully catch up in that regard. So, it's the long-haul.

Carrolade ,

Rigorous exercise might help. Just being able to vent some of those bottled-up frustrations while pumping your body will help process them a little bit. It'll also physically tire you to potentially make sleeping a little bit easier.

Carrolade ,

The claim of Israeli apartheid does not pertain to the status of Israeli Arabs fyi. It pertains to de facto Israeli control of Gaza and the West Bank, where any time they want the IDF can exercise as much control as they want, by virtue of superior firepower.

Hamas, for instance, only persisted because the Israelis allowed it. Israel controlled the majority of access to the regions, and could and did unilaterally police them with military force at will.

Carrolade ,

De facto control does not mean 100% control over every event that happens. People are still humans, and capable of making errors. It is not mind reading/mind control powers, those are still impossible.

Carrolade ,

Except they would routinely send in military forces to capture terrorist suspects in a process they referred to as "mowing the grass". It's even more pronounced in the West Bank, where the Israeli settlements are thoroughly intermingled with the Palestinian ones, and the Palestinians had relatively few powers over their own security.

It's not a simple thing, unfortunately. Middle Eastern politics seldom are, just in general.

Carrolade ,

The claim of Israeli apartheid is not a hamas claim, it's acknowledged by various Israelis as well. Neither Gaza nor, especially the West Bank, has had full independence in many years.

Note, I am not talking about any Israeli citizens. I am talking about Israeli non-citizens who live under Israeli restrictions and off-and-on military control. This is the nature of apartheid. A people that is separate, but not fully independent. An in-between state of conquest, where you're sort-of conquered but not really and have some, but not full, freedoms.

Carrolade ,

Except it is not under full Palestinian control either. Some things are controlled by Palestinians, other things are indeed controlled by Israelis. When a country is exercising partial control over citizens that are not its own, something odd is happening.

You can justify it if you like, but it is not the normal way of things where free people are concerned.

Carrolade ,

Extremely complicated, certainly. But I hope my point that the apartheid claim, very specifically, is pretty hard to argue with comes through. It does not refer to any Israeli citizens, that's a separate topic. It is not strictly hamas propaganda, it's just a criticism of one part of a very complicated and difficult situation. The line that it is propaganda is actually itself, propaganda.

The only way to make it untrue was if Palestinians had full legal control over the West Bank, which they do not. Gaza is a murkier situation. It's really about the West Bank though, not hamas or Gaza.

Carrolade ,

The only issue with that is Israel's wish to remain a Jewish state. If they added all of those Palestinians as free and equal citizens, then that would shift the demographics of Israel sufficiently to put that at risk. So, they have to choose between values of freedom and equality, vs being a Jewish state, vs giving up that land.

Or they could attempt to remove all the people somehow.

No easy solutions, unfortunately. As usual for the Middle East.

Carrolade ,

I do agree that terrorism is a problem that needs to be dealt with. The problem is when innocents get caught up in the middle. If you just call a whole people or whole religion terrorist as an excuse to get rid of them, you're just a generic conquerer, and a liar on top.

Carrolade ,

Yes, terrorists do do those things. But some collateral damage is one thing. All the possible collateral damage is genocide. If Netanyahu tries to drive all the Palestinians away, he has become as bad as what the Jewish people fled.

Just because some bad people are doing bad things does not give you an excuse to drop bombs on everyone. That is no good.

You do not want to become just as bad as what you hate, doing whatever it takes. Or you become them. A good person must try harder.

Carrolade ,

No, the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict began far, far earlier than Oct 7th, that was just the most recent flare-up. It's complicated, remember?

The key is to not be evil, and to try not to kill too many people. You cannot escape the evil of killing innocent people, there is no acceptable justification. Some would be war. But too many is bad. Are the Israelis good people, or are they Huns? We shall see.

Carrolade ,

Oh, I see. I don't know about genocide back then, it was really just various wars after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. Some atrocities, but nothing into the thousands.

No, if your "enough" is just taking living space over the bones and ashes of others, you are commiting evil. There are other ways.

Carrolade ,

Israel isn't fighting just the bad neighbor though, they're using that bad neighbor as an excuse to kill many good neighbors too. All Palestinians are not all bad, some are innocent.

They actually weren't given it by Britain after WW2 either, that's not even close. Fresh Jewish settlement in the area began somewhere around the 1900s-1920s, and they actually purchased the land with gathered funds for the purpose. Life between the Jewish settlers and the Palestinians was initially peaceful. I'll warn you, I'm a history guy, I love this stuff.

History is an ugly thing, certainly, the important thing is that we do better, and learn from the errors. This is how we can avoid living in such miserable times as our ancestors were often forced to, so often making foolish choices and burning their own countries to the ground out of hubris, like Germany or Japan in WW2 did.

The first Arab-Israeli War was a little more complicated than that. Jewish militias were actually conquering land at that point in something called Plan Dalet, it was something of a civil war in the broader region between the Jewish and Palestinian factions. After the Israeli declaration of independence, yes, a large coalition of countries did try to eject them. It was won by the Israelis though, and they were rewarded for that with gains. These wars do not give excuse to kill the descendents of those people, though, right? Each person should be judged for what they do, not their fathers, or their neighbors.

Don't think the Israelis are innocent angels that never conquered or committed atrocities in their early history either. It was a very ugly time with both sides being pretty horrendous at different points. Modern Israel has taken steps at different points to be better than that though, returning to the peaceful ways of the original settlers under people like Rabin, before Netanyahu took over. They can do that again, it is not too late.

Carrolade ,

Probably not that many, actually, most of the Russian casualties are uniformed soldiers. All the Russians would need to do to stop the death would be withdraw anyway. Can the Gazans withdraw anywhere, or no?

Carrolade ,

You should actually look into why they're all still there then, even though self-preservation says that's a terrible idea.

Carrolade ,

There's immigrants moving all over the world, right? Going to Europe, America, etc. Why are Gazans still there, where there's not enough food, fresh water, there's only tents to live in, and a war rages around them? Millions of them. Don't the mothers want their babies to live? Why don't they flee like everyone else in the same sort of situation?

It's not hard to answer, just look it up when you get around to it.

I'd say, but I'm trying to wind down the conversation.

Carrolade ,

Not hamas, Gazans that have no hamas affiliation. Could they enter Egypt? Could they enter Israel? Are there any other neighboring countries? Could they get on a boat, or a plane?

While yes, some always stay behind, a great many flee. Most do not stick around. Mariupol was encircled quickly, look at the towns in Eastern Ukraine where they had a lot of warning before the enemy arrived. Jews usually fled, that's why Israel was founded in the first place, right? A place to flee to.

At any rate, in Gaza, almost nobody has fled. Some should flee, right? But they actually cannot. Physically cannot, prevented by other people.

Carrolade ,

I'm sorry for upsetting you, but don't put words in my mouth. I'm not arguing to let Gazans "do whatever they want", I have not said that or anything similar. If you remember, I said earlier that terrorists need to be dealt with, right?

It's those innocents, those that are not part of hamas, that's the sticking point. For whatever good or bad reasons they cannot leave, the fact is that today, they 100% cannot leave. So, they should not be callously butchered and/or starved simply because of what their fathers and neighbors have done.

Carrolade ,

Yes, hamas is not good people, I do not trust them. I don't trust politicians either though, especially the more extreme ones.

That's why I say what sort of people the Israelis are remains to be seen. We don't know yet. We won't know until this is all over and we see what has become of those Gazans that are innocent. Will they be alive or dead? That will be telling.

Carrolade ,

A politician loyal to his own laws and courts, sure, I absolutely trust them more. They're aren't all, though. Ultimately a terrorist and a politician with no regard for their own law are very similar. Power-mad. A terrorist can even become a politician, it happens sometimes.

Carrolade ,

Ah, LinkedIn, exactly where I want to get nuanced answers to weird questions from.

Carrolade ,

So, the goal of treatment is not to simply reduce dysphoria. It's mainly to address their many times higher rate of suicide. The treatment that has been found to be most effective is medical transition.

It's not some cosmetic thing you can just go out and get. It requires doctors, and is very much considered a strong intervention only pursued when it is necessary, similar to having your stomach stapled for dealing with obesity. If you went to your doc and wanted a stomach stapling, there would be a lot you would have to go through first, to make sure such a drastic treatment was really necessary. Same with a transition.

The issue becomes then, how to treat these rare cases in our society after the medical intervention is done. Which bathroom, can they play sports, stuff like that.

South Korea blasts Russia-North Korea deal, says it will consider supplying arms to Ukraine ( apnews.com )

South Korea’s presidential office on Thursday condemned an agreement reached by Russia and North Korea that vowed mutual defense assistance in the event of war and said it will reconsider its policy of limiting its support to Ukraine to non-lethal supplies....

Carrolade ,

Oh hell yes, it's about time.

Carrolade ,

It is illegal for S Korea to sell arms to anyone fighting in a war, a measure against war profiteering. That law will need to be changed in some way. That will not be easy, Korean culture is pretty conservative, very fond of the status quo. This is a strong incentive, however.

Carrolade ,

Here in the US we have one of the two main political factions regularly threatening terrorism, execution and even war.

When people are already arguing to take you out behind the chemical shed and shoot you, it's a little out of touch to think they give two shits about your future health in a changing climate. Or our planet, they probably think they can get to Mars with Elon or something, or god will rapture them, or whatever they think, I don't know.

You think people should care about future generations? They probably should, but we have parents that don't give two shits about their own kids, much less anyone else's.

Carrolade ,

I agree, I think they've been remarkably responsible about avoiding lasting damage. What upsets me is how they're fueling the far-right rage machine with more propaganda ammunition at a time when we are already fighting a fierce and undecided battle to live in a world that isn't run by exclusionary ideological nationalistic idiots.

It's like they cannot understand that some people don't want the world saved, and agree with Hitler when he wrote about the tears of war being the bread of future generations. A sentiment that basically says suffering=good. So, more suffering=better. Will climate change cause suffering? Well, guess what then.

Carrolade ,

While I also would like to see bolder action in support of Ukraine, I don't think they would have been sufficient to enable that offensive to succeed. Unless a whole lot were given. Personally I don't think that attack into heavily fortified, deep defenses backed by available post-mobilization Russian reserves was ever worth it, though I understand why they wanted to try.

Ultimately though, I don't think the war will be ended by gaining/losing ground anyway, it'll be ended by political and/or economic exhaustion of one of the sides. Towards this end, the planes will help.

Carrolade ,

Very weak article, giving him credit as a free speech absolutist. Is he really, or does he ban people that attack him? Alludes to us having self-driving due to his innovations. Really? Other automakers seem neck and neck with him, with Mercedes having passed a major milestone before him, quite recently.

Does he really have hyperloops to dream up and Mars colonies to plan, or is that just marketing drivel to appeal to certain types?

This is almost fanboying in disguise. If you simply read it through the lens of being pro-racism, it's suddenly a praise piece.

edit: Oh, and it doesn't even try to answer the question it asks in its own headline.

Carrolade , (edited )

Here in the US, I'm afraid we've never been particularly good at it. They are. We're frankly outmatched in this new information warfare arena.

In a hot war we could ruin them, we're good at those. This stuff, not so much. It runs counter to our broader culture where everyone is entitled to their own opinion.

edit: One thing we could perhaps do is hire some top tier marketing firms. Instead of applying a warfighting perspective to it, look at it as business competition and from a market capture perspective.

Hurl weaponized capitalism at them. Military industrial complex has nothing on a good marketing agency.

Carrolade ,

I largely agree, current LLMs add no capabilities to humanity that it did not already possess. The point of the regulation is to encourage a certain degree of caution in future development though.

Personally I do think it's a little overly broad. Google search can aid in a cyber security attack. The kill switch idea is also a little silly, and largely a waste of time dreamed up by watching too many Terminator and Matrix movies. While we eventually might reach a point where that becomes a prudent idea, we're still quite far away.

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