Where did you sit your lessons on Finnish military capability,
Please show me where I make just a hint about that, I have not written ANYTHING about the Finish defense capabilities.
The reason I don't care to go through all, is that it's just to damned much.
Yes EU is an actual defense pact, but it lacks structure and capability, because most countries have relied much on USA for the actual military muscle.
This has been shown in our lacking ability to supply Ukraine without USA. Also EU unfortunately doesn't include UK anymore, which would be the best militarily prepared country if they were in.
EU is ramping up now, so we will be less dependent on USA. And I'm happy we have Finland and Sweden with us. (Denmark here)
Before Russia invaded Ukraine, things were different, there was a strong effort for cooperation with Russia, which unfortunately they didn't appreciate as we had hoped. So if by "before" you mean when Russia had not shown their true colors, I'd believe the 50/50 thing. The difference is the invasion. And after that it was certainly not 50/50, and it became clear the danger to Finland had increased too.
The part of the Russian strategy I'm talking about, was exactly about Russia poking in places that was NOT Nato, but where they might have a chance to divide both Europe and NATO, and Finland could be such an area to poke.
Obviously we are all standing much stronger now, because we have been strengthened both EU and NATO, and Russia has been weakened. But if Ukraine had fallen when USA didn't support them much for 8 months, the situation could be way more dangerous than it is.