I've been sick. My guess is covid, but a home test was negative ... but it was also 2 years expired, so I don't know if that was a valid test or if I did it right. Anyway, I've been exceptionally stupid and reactive between bouts of coughing and napping. Feeling a wee bit better now, though.
Yay! I love and want beehaw to continue, and those funds are an important part of that! I appreciate the time and effort y'all have put into keeping the dream alive ❤
Teamwork counts for a lot especially with Beehaw; but this endeavour was really all GW. Their hardworking and efforts handling this has been tremendous. Way more work than should have been required.
That damn bastard making me look bad. /s gonna b& them.
Welp, did helped run my last conference with my current employer. This is my 18th annual event and like...Idk, 25th altogether? It was successful enough with no major issues. Nothing that attendees saw, anyway.
I'll probably never go back to Miami. At least not in the summer. Summers in the Midwest are already hot and humid and disgusting, yet somehow Florida in the summer is like 10x worse. Though I will say the food in Miami is to die for.
Either way, that was my very last one, hopefully forever. Though I said the same in 2019 and then ended up going back to the that company in 2021, so...never say never?
Relatedly, finally gave my new employer a start date. Hopefully they agree, as it's a couple month out still. But I need the time. I also gave my apartment property manager my move out notice.
Now to find a new apartment in the new city. Hopefully I can get that squared away this week.
Oh you know, existential dread, filing out visa and residency paperwork for different countries, applying for jobs in said places to make such a leap easier; the usual start to a dystopian week.
I am waiting to take my custom e-mail server from one company to another. My robust filtering based on aliases broke a while ago due to the provider, and I just... never dealt with it.
So some 19,000 e-mails or so later, I'm over 90% completely sorted/deleted everything to be ready for a transfer out.
Our system only allows 2 options. Any '3rd' option is a vote against your best interests. So is not voting. That said, yeah, I'd vote for a replacement.
I just heard Steve Bannon doing that fascist thing where -- when confronted with the fact that he said on his radio show that he wanted to see particular heads on spikes -- Bannon acted like that was just rhetoric. He didn't really mean it. Except he knows his followers DO mean it. And he's still calling for dismantling the government and remaking it into a permanent dictatorship.
So if that is what it means to vote Republican this election, then I'm gonna be a yellow dog democrat about it.
That can work with ranked choice voting, but we don't have that. Technically, we CAN vote for anyone over 35 and born in the U.S., but practically, this just splits the vote. This worked for Republicans when George Wallace split the Democratic vote such that Nixon won with 43%, and it worked for democrats when Ross Perot split the Republican vote such that Clinton also won with 43%.
Having just 2 main candidates is like having 1 candidate because there are some things they both decide to do the same. More candidates are necessary for a democracy. Some countries also implement 2 step elections that take 2 or more most voted candidates to another election. Though it's much more ExPeNsIvE to run such an election so the US won't do it.
Think I might be in early stages of a hypomanic episode, but not sure.
Need to chill somehow. Running with assumptions, though. Might just be a bad few days; just haven't had them this suddenly in a while.
Might end up making this comment and by the time next week's thread is started in a day or two, I'll be feeling fine(-ish) again. Wouldn't be the first time.
Could really do with something interesting like the Olympics right now, but that's still almost a month away.
I don't even enjoy most sports, but it's a nice distraction. If I'm being honest, all I'm really interested in is the women's football portion, although there's at least more Euro 2025 qualifiers and a handful of friendlies in a couple of weeks to hold me over until then.
I don't think Biden did that bad. Sure he slipped up once or twice but he answered every question with a relevant policy that he implemented as well as bringing up what they were trying to do next. He was able to speak clearly and reasonably.
Trumps response to questions was to dodge and lie. I don't know how anyone can walk away thinking both sides were equal or worse that trump "won".
When I see posts saying Biden was a bumbling idiot in the debate I wonder if the person even watched the debate.
The past two weeks were amazing, and I'm an Orff Level 3 certified teacher now! Also last night I finally made it back to that little karaoke spot I found about a month ago. The owner is such a cool lady and there's this wonderful feeling of community I've felt totally welcomed into. It will be another month before I'm able to go back since I'm about to do some traveling, but I definitely anticipate it being a regular haunt for me.
This wasn't a debate in this format. You should put these two individuals' suitability for being president in the context of their speeches and acts collectively and not this single event. And by speech, not TV pre-digested and edited clips. Go watch Biden's full SOTU and then give it a thought. Go watch one of the felon's rallies and give that some thought.
Copying a post from a separate thread, but I think it could have been worse. Did he kinda fuck up? Yeah. But he actually talked about his plan going forward, and his achievements in the past. Post below.
Yeah, FWIW, Biden actually talked about expanding stuff like drug price caps to save the government shitloads of money while also saving Americans money as well. Stuff like taxing people making over 400k a year only, lead pipe abatement, funding the ACA more, giving Ukraine the aid it needs to slap the dogshit out of russia, etc etc.
If I had no idea about either president, at leask I know what Biden's future promises are and what he told us he got done in the past four years, even if he did have some sections where he kind of mucked up like this kid did.
Trump, while sounding more coherent vocally, was entirely all over the place with Afghanistan and immigrants bad (no plan?), and somehow he's going to win the war in Ukraine and bring the WSJ reporter home, for free, before he's even elected in just under five months. Oh, and apparently, he hopes he won't die before then, though he didn't sound so sure about that last night.
If I was an uninformed voter, I'd be like "Damn, biden is old, but at least he has a plan and a good team judging off his pretty amazing track record" capping insulin at $35 a mo instead of $400 is fucking awesome, not to mention the other drugs too. The massive investment in the US economy was also nice. Battery plants in Georgia, chip fabs across the country, fixing infrastructure cia the bipartisan infrastructure plan...all great stuff.
Unfortunately, this is not in touch with the reality of our situation.
I find people, when trying to cope with the hard truth that Biden is going to lose, revert to talking about how much he SHOULD win.
He should. He's been a pretty good president (a genocide not withstanding).
That's not really relevant. Because if he loses, we are likely to lose our democracy. And currently, he's going to lose.
He is losing in the polls. He has been losing in the polls and the swing states for the entire election. At some point, this needs to change, or we're going to watch Trump get reelected. And last night made clear that as long as he is the candidate, this isn't going to change. When he applied all his effort to proving he could win the election he failed spectacularly.
I don't just mean flubbing lines. I mean he lost complete control of the narrative. He demonstrated that when trying his absolute hardest, he cannot reliably explain to voters why the vote for him. That isn't a debate problem. That's a fundamental candidate problem that doesn't appear fixable (except with a new candidate).
If he were winning, at least by a little, we could pretend that maybe that's not a big deal. But he's not. He is losing. He has been losing the entire campaign, and if he doesn't step aside, the election result will be the same as every time pollsters have asked in the last year:
President Donald Trump.
No more "it's not that bad". This debate is a clear synopsis of the campaign until now, and the outcome in November. If this debate "isn't that bad", you might as well say losing is not that bad. (It is. It really is.)
I mean, Lichtman himself will tell you he's not infallible, and his system is not without controversy, but he seems to have had a pretty good track record up to this point.
Yeah, he did kind of fudge that, it's true (IIRC he said that Trump would win the popular vote rather than the electoral vote, whereas it was of course the other way round). Although I think I remember before the election he said that Trump would "win," but he didn't say exactly what he meant by that.
His model was previously based entirely on predicting the popular vote. Now he's switched it to just predict the winner based on EC delegates. I think we'll all be thrilled if Trump loses in November (or ideally, just plain dies), but a statistical model that doesn't factor in things like Republicans trying to pull fake or rogue elector hijinks doesn't fill me with confidence. And who knows what SCOTUS will do if it's thrown to them (Lichtman also predicted Al Gore's 'win').
Also, looking at the list, I'm pretty sure more than 6 are false:
Debatable. He did push a lot of changes, but the number of rightward-changes that happened under his watch (like Roe being overturned, MQD being bolstered, etc) have overshadowed basically everything else)
False. This entire year has been non-stop protests, and not just over Gaza (1)
False. Whether it was a bullshit thing to prosecute or not (it was), Hunter's conviction is a major talking point on the Right to attack Biden (and specifically, to push independents towards viewing Biden and Trump as equally criminal). (2)
False. Between the Afghanistan withdrawl and Gaza, he's got military and foreign policy failures in both flanks' eyes. (3)
False. I think that if Republicans had not been paid by the Kremlin to sandbag aid to Ukraine, he might have had one, but as of now Ukraine is not a success, and I can't think of any others that are known to voters. (4)
False. He was never considered charismatic like Obama, or a "National Hero". (5)
False. Trump's charisma among his base is a trademark of his populist campaign. It's why Trump can dominate the Right and DeSantis falls flat. (6)
It's possible that the Dems would have held the House, barely, if the New York Democratic party hadn't completely screwed up redistricting, so that's maybe a "soft false." I think what he means by "charismatic" is someone like Reagan who appeals to the other side of the aisle (Reagan Democrats in this case); Trump is only charismatic to his own followers. I consider the Afghanistan withdrawal to be, overall, a highly positive thing; yes, it was handled badly, but it's the easiest thing in the world to keep a forever war going, and at least there Biden put a stop to it, so I give him high marks for that at least. Anyway, I wonder if that is considered a foreign policy failure; I don't, but others might. Not trying to blindly defend Lichtman or anything, just trying to cling to whatever shred of hope remains. I think it ends up sort of being how Lichtman himself interprets the keys a month or two before election day.
EDIT: Rereading key #1, "After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections," I guess that even if the NY Dems hadn't screwed up there probably would have been a smaller majoirty than before, ergo false.
I think what he means by “charismatic” is someone like Reagan who appeals to the other side of the aisle (Reagan Democrats in this case); Trump is only charismatic to his own followers.
I don't think working "across the aisle" is really what this is about; I think this is purely about voters' perceptions of them as people. But in either case, Biden sure isn't winning anyone over with his personality who wasn't already firmly center-right Neoliberal.
I consider the Afghanistan withdrawal to be, overall, a highly positive thing; yes, it was handled badly, but it’s the easiest thing in the world to keep a forever war going, and at least there Biden put a stop to it, so I give him high marks for that at least.
Gaza and Afghanistan are polar opposite reactions, depending on what flank of the Democratic party you're on:
Gaza is an unmitigated disaster to the anti-war/anti-genocide/anti-SetCol Left flank, and a moderate success to the pro-Israel/ pro-war Neoliberal Right flank.
Afghanistan is an unmitigated disaster to the pro-war Neoliberal Right flank, and a moderate success to the anti-war Left flank.
Not trying to blindly defend Lichtman or anything, just trying to cling to whatever shred of hope remains.
Understood. I guess for me my anger is more important right now, because this was so avoidable, and Trump feels like he's close to coming back because of the DNC's endless hubris (again). And I've already seen people trying to somehow blame the anti-genocide/ pro-Palestinian protesters for this over on Reddit, since they reflexively scapegoat any and all centrist Dem failures, and they don't have a Bernie or Nader to scapegoat this time.
I'm shocked that the guy who has handlers to make sure he doesn't wander off had a sub-par debate. /s
These two candidates are there because they're useful idiots for the billionaire class. Neither of them give a damn about anyone, and it's probably past time to stop pretending Trump 2.0 isn't happening and have an exit strategy.
Generally speaking, if the oligarchs don't think you'll be useful to them, you don't make it far enough up in the food chain to be considered a candidate. They don't play the game of "Maybe this person will do what I tell them once they're in office," they play of the game of "Only people I know will do what I say will get onto the ballot."
Unfortunately for a lot of us there isn't an exit strategy. No country worth moving to wants an almost 40 year old, single, uneducated, factory schmuck :/
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