And who can forget the classic, "Where is the waste from fossil fuels? Take a deep breath, it's in your lungs. Where is the waste from nuclear power? Where we store it."
Yes there have been disasters but the waste from those are tracked, in a specific location, and can be cleaned up. The default state of fossil fuels hits every living breathing thing on Earth.
And even factoring in the impact from disasters nuclear is still the safest. And we have even safer designs for reactors nowadays then the reactors that had those disasters.
Nuclear suffers from the airplane fallacy where when something goes wrong it tends to go really wrong and a lot of people die at once and it makes the news. But fact is, many orders of magnitude more people have died from fossil fuel plants, mining, byproducts, and combustion. They just die slower, in smaller groups, so it doesn't get reported on as easily.
I mean, I agree with your broader point that it gets a disproportionate amount of coverage and scares people, but I dunno about nuclear accidents killing people quickly and at once.
I mean, Chernobyl was the worst nuclear incident, ya? Like, there were definitely some people who were killed right there, but it was a pretty small group, even so.
There is consensus that a total of approximately 30 people died from immediate blast trauma and acute radiation syndrome (ARS) in the seconds to months after the disaster, respectively, with 60 in total in the decades since, inclusive of later radiation induced cancer.[2][3][4] However, there is considerable debate concerning the accurate number of projected deaths that have yet to occur due to the disaster's long-term health effects; long-term death estimates range from up to 4,000 (per the 2005 and 2006 conclusions of a joint consortium of the United Nations) for the most exposed people of Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia, to 16,000 cases in total for all those exposed on the entire continent of Europe, with figures as high as 60,000 when including the relatively minor effects around the globe.
So, immediate deaths were about 30. I mean, that airline crash we had out in those Spanish islands, whatsit called....
The Tenerife airport disaster occurred on 27 March 1977, when two Boeing 747 passenger jets collided on the runway at Los Rodeos Airport[1] (now Tenerife North Airport) on the Spanish island of Tenerife.[2][3] The collision occurred when KLM Flight 4805 initiated its takeoff run during dense fog while Pan Am Flight 1736 was still on the runway. The impact and resulting fire killed all on board KLM Flight 4805 and most of the occupants of Pan Am Flight 1736, with only 61 survivors in the front section of the aircraft. With a total of 583 fatalities, the disaster is the deadliest accident in aviation history.[2][3]
I mean, that killed about 20 times the immediate number of deaths in Chernobyl. I guarantee you that that collision didn't get twenty times the media coverage or concern of Chernobyl.
Even if we use the highest estimated total death figure listed above for Chernobyl for the "increased death rate from minor effects around the world" -- 60,000 -- and I suspect that that's being awfully pessimistic -- it kind of gets dwarfed by how many similar deaths around the world we casually ignore from coal power and the like due to particulate emissions.
googles
If one's worried about death rates, nuclear's at about the bottom of the list.
And now we're in an age of nuclear fusion. My kid or grandkids may live in a world powered by even cleaner reactors. Which is great because they will probably have to live entirely indoors.
@IchNichtenLichten
It might have a higher initial upfront cost, but the return on investment over a plant's whole lifetime makes it one of the cheapest. And even then, they don't take long to break even.
Perhaps a bad example because most people undermine them, but China has still decided to move forward with 4 different nuclear facilities this year despite having an ABUNDANCE of solar manufacturing. If they found that decision worthwhile I would think the opposite, assuming most of the reasoning is current battery tech can't sustain dark periods at a massive scale, but I'm not an expert.
Also just saw you mentioned nuclear costs in another comment, I suggest you look at South Korea and China's cost per facility compared to the US, they're able to build and maintain facilities at about half the US does.
Literally every source I've come across has nuclear being massively more expensive than renewables + storage, at least in the West.
The market decides what to invest in in a capitalist economy and they will tend to go for the thing that makes them the most money in the shortest time possible and that's why new nuclear isn't happening much.
If you're advocating for public ownership of utilities so there's central planning and long term thinking instead of profit chasing, that's an interesting debate to have.
And commuter cars probably. I'd love something I can drive to work and back, and then later upcycle into home energy storage.
CATL showed a 160 Wh/kg sodium-ion battery in 2021 and has plans to increase that density over 200 Wh/kg to better meet the needs of electric vehicles.
Hopefully that happens in a reasonable timeframe. I don't need high range, I just need cheap to repair or long life for a commuter. Maybe we'll get something similar for buses and light rail first before getting it for regular cars.
Yes, absolutely. For a regular daily commute to a job that allows you to afford 2 vehicles, having one of the two with a shorter range with more charge cycles makes a lot of sense.
Yup. I'm married with kids, so we need two cars regardless. The commuter just needs to reliably go ~50 miles between charges even during the winter, while the family car needs to fit my wife and kids and go at least 400 miles between charges (we like road trips).
Unfortunately, I haven't found the right fit since EVs are either too expensive, don't have enough winter range (e.g. old Leafs), or have too many safety advisories (e.g. batteries catching fire don't mesh with garage storage). Likewise for family cars. Most current EVs are in the awkward middle: too much range for a commute, and not enough for a road trip.
But if there was an economy car with ~150 miles range and inexpensive batteries, I'd probably buy it.
Yup, especially since my workplace has been talking about installing chargers. I don't know when that'll happen, but I'm willing to gamble if I won't need them for a couple years (I might move to another company by then anyway).
they can easily reignite, and traditional firefighting methods don't work
they can happen with a simple puncture, or during charging
there's pretty much no warning sign
Whereas with ICE vehicles:
generally caused by poor maintenance
overheating (major cause) has warning sensors and can generally be avoided
are fairly easy for fire departments to deal with
I was considering getting a Chevy Bolt, but the company's response to charging issues (i.e. don't charge in your garage) killed my enthusiasm for it. Pretty much everything else either costs too much or doesn't have enough range. I'd really rather not spend much more than $20k on a car, but the used market has been bonkers.
I think we still need more time/data to get the whole picture. EVs are still in their early stages.
It would be interesting to look at fire rates for vehicles at rest. These types of fires have the potential to become quite serious, as they are often not immediately noticed, especially if the vehicle is parked in a garage or remote area. This additional time allows the fire to spread and intensify.
Since EV fires are typically more intense than ICE vehicles, we should expect EV fires to cause more damage to the surroundings and to spread faster. Though, this danger could be offset if EVs have a lower probability of self ignition.
We should also look at fires while refueling/charging. Lithium cells are most dangerous when charging and discharging. While an overfilled gas tank is easy to spot and may catch fire, a continually overcharged battery is invisible and will catch fire. Also, because of the long charge time of batteries, many EV owners leave the vehicle unattended while charging and would not immediately notice a fire if one were to occur. In addition, EVs are often charged at home, in close proximity to residences and other vehicles, and often within garages. These residential locations do not have the same fire safety requirements and suppression systems as gas stations, so a vehicle fire at home is already much more dangerous and has the potential to severely damage your home.
We have had a century to figure out ICE, but it's still very early days for EVs, so only time will tell.
Of course this could all be addressed by designing robust systems that implement strong redundancy, safety checks, and sufficient regulation, but that increases complexity and costs money.
The Volt was really good for this - 50 miles electric and 430 miles gas on a 7 gallon tank.
Unfortunately, PHEVs fell out of fashion in 2018 and are only just coming back into style. I think the Prius is the only comparable car on the market that manages this. The Kia Niro is also looking reasonably good with a 34 mile EV range.
But if there was an economy car with ~150 miles range and inexpensive batteries, I’d probably buy it.
Both are in the $30-$40k range new. You can find a 2017 Chevy Volt for $16k (and I seriously can't recommend it enough).
I have a non-plugin Prius, and it works really well as a commuter. I got it for $10k like 10 years ago, and it has needed very little maintenance and still gets 45-ish MPG (highway speeds here are 70mph, and I usually go a few mph over).
Ideally, I'd go pure electric for the next one so I'd never need to go to the gas station again. A PHEV means I still need to use some gas since I highly doubt I'd get 50 miles range on our high speed highways, especially if the car is older.
But yeah, seeing the prices going down is good news. The EV discount for used EVs is doing a lot of work.
Yup. If it applied to private sales, I'd definitely get one. I just really hate dealing with dealers, so each of my last three cars have been from private parties. I tried dealers each time, and left with a bad impression.
Most of the EVs in local classifieds are from dealers, probably because of the tax credit.
What's hard now is finding a private sale from the vehicles actual owner. Thanks to Facebook and lazy half assed pieces of crap, almost every cheap used car listed on Facebook marketplace is one being flipped instead of one being sold by a long term owner.
Fortunately, my area has our own local classifieds that are used by a lot of locals, and owners very frequently sell their cars there. The problem is that, since the credits only apply to dealerships, they end up being about the same price or maybe more expensive than the dealers, which is bonkers.
So even if you find someone who is honest and the original owner, it'll probably be more expensive through them because the dealers get a tax cut (which is supposed to go to you...).
Probably would have if we didn't pull out all the stops to subsidize it all to hell and back. 40 years ago was a great time for increasing fuel efficiency and smaller, lighter cars specifically because of gas shortages, and when that got a temporary reprieve we just acted like it could never happen again
I remember NiCad batteries still being used in power wheels toys as a kid. For all I know they may still be, but the battery advancements have been particularly amazing.
Sodium batteries are in development for over 30 years. We were pioneering this kind of research almost 40 years ago and that's how much time, effort and financial investment this stuff takes. It will be 10 more years to get them everywhere. Technology is not as fast as you think.
Sodium batteries are in development for over 30 years.
Closer to a century. But the investment in the last decade has risen with the price of fossil fuel as well as the sharp fall in short-term available renewable electricity. International investment - particularly in states like China, India, and Germany - have spiked considerably during this time as well. That's why we're seeing so many productive discoveries outside the US.
It will be 10 more years to get them everywhere.
HiNA Battery Technology Company began producing EV-ready sodium batteries last year.
TÜV Rheinland approved Pylontech to begin mass producing bulk energy storage systems in March of 2023.
Rollout is occurring at the speed of domestic investment. And while US companies continue to drag their heels, countries with higher electricity demand and fewer fossil fuel subsidies are not waiting around.
I need long range and I need it at -30F. A round trip to the grocery store or to see a doctor is 100 miles and can be as much as 300 miles. I can't justify an EV until I can get that kind of range at an affordable price. $40,000US+ ain't really affordable for most people.
I almost bought a Chevy Bolt, but between not being able to actually find one to see and touch, and the almost good enough range, I just didn't feel comfortable with such a large purchase.
I think your use case is pretty niche, but 100 miles in winter (even if ridiculously cold) isn't that unreasonable. For me, that means a round trip to the airport, and that can absolutely happen in winter (e.g. family visiting for Christmas or something).
And yeah, I'm not paying $40k for a car, especially at these loan rates. I spend a bit more than $1k on gas, so if an ICE is $25k and electricity is completely free (it's not), it would take 10 years to be more economical. It's even worse that EV batteries and most parts of the electrical system just aren't repairable by your average mechanic, and battery replacements costs like $10-20k, which is about what I'm looking to pay for an entire car anyway.
I'm definitely interested, and I'll buy if the price is right. Chevy Bolt and Nissan Leaf are about right, but they've had battery issues in the past, but I'm seriously considering them, just looking for the right deal.
I'm in northern Minnesota. There is a fairly large low population area across the north central and northwestern part of that state. Not many people live here. And yes, the use case is pretty niche compared to anyone living in a more urban area. But while there aren't many of us up here, we do exist.
Financial constraints are the biggest issue with the adoption of EVs for most people. It is still cheaper for many to own an ICE than invest in an EV. The pay back is painfully slow. Still, if it hadn't been for the battery problems of the Bolt, I probably would have bought one. It would have been just doable for my needs as a second vehicle.
I have looked into hybrids also. The problem there is since I live in a very rural area, the long distances I travel means I drive at highway speeds for almost all of the trip. The ICE motor would run the whole trip anyway. Paying for a battery that is seldom used and dragging the extra weight around makes no sense.And it would be difficult to something repaired if it needed it.
Howdy Neighbor, you could always move a little further north. We've got lots of people driving EVs up here in Winnipeg! I'm kidding, but there is at least some charging infrastructure coming rurally here in Manitoba, and you are starting to see a lot of commuters using them for 100+ km (one-way) commutes. That being said, we have similar issues if you need to drive long distances between rural centers, but the government subsidies to help install L2 chargers seem to be making a difference as more and more municipalities are installing at least one charger somewhere. I can understand how people are still hesitant about winter, with -20C (-5f) to -30C(-30f) being not uncommon (for now...).
Hi! Neighbor! I am a lot closer to Winnipeg than the Twin Cities.
There are government programs to install chargers here also. The problem is, there is no money to fix those chargers when they stop working. My Daughter, who is a research engineer in the fields of public charging for EVs and HVAC systems, will tell you that she can get all kinds of money to install them, but there is no money to actually keep them working. And it's expensive to repair them. So it's nearly useless at this point in time to install them only to have them break and not get repaired. She is currently doing a 10 year study of a string of 60 chargers across the northern part of the state from Red Lake to Brainard to the Twin Cities.
Awesome! Isn't that always the way. People, agencies and governments love to put their name on new and shiny projects, but never want to fund labor or upkeep. I work for a non-profit and a big part of my job is begging for money to help us maintain the amazing infrastructure we have, but get very little support to upkeep.
I've spent a lot of time visiting Roseau and Warroad in my life, so it's always nice to meet an American neighbor in the wilds of the internet. Manitoba is actually a cool place to visit, and your dollar goes a lot further. Come up to Winnipeg for a weekend and you'd be surprised how much more there is to do now than even a decade a go. It's food and music scene is awesome.
I haven't been to Winnipeg in a long time, since before COVID. But I do get to Fort Francis when I go to the 'Falls. I miss the days when we could just pass the border without the hassle it's become today. I used to have family up in Roseau years ago. Might still be some shirttail outlaws up there.
My Daughter works for a non-profit too. She does research on not only public charging for vehicles, but also HVAC systems for homes across the US. I have also had to swim in the ocean of paperwork of state and federal grants. Few survive the experience for long. May God 'ha mercy on your soul!
For hybrids, I drive a Prius and mostly on the highway (70mph speed limit here) and I generally get 40-45mpg. I haven't had anything to wrong with the hybrid side, and it's not a plug-in hybrid. Prices are kinda high for them right now, but I got mine for $10k used about 10 years/90k miles ago (had 60k miles when I got it).
That said, I'm in Utah where winter temps rarely go below 10F, so I have no insight into really could winters.
But yeah, EVs really need to come down in price to make sense for me.
Where do you live that it's often -30? And if you need to drive 300mi to a doctor's for a medical emergency at that one time if year, do you have someone else you could ask or only drive there and worrying about charging later?
Northern Minnesota often sees those temperatures. And if it's a real medical emergency, you could well be dead by the time anyone can get to you - IF you have cell service to make a call. If they do make it to you, you will probably be airlifted by helicopter. Making a a 100+ mile trip, would be just for a clinic visit or even to pick up a prescription, which I did last Saturday for my Wife.
100+ miles is fine for most any EV. My bolt during the winter was still able to get 200mi+ at 70mph in sub zero F weather. With a home charger it's fine. It's road trips that would push further. I've found charging adds maybe 25% time to long trips. But that doesn't seem to be the use case you're referring to.
For sure. They would likely use a lower capacity battery due to these being much less energy dense, though. Hybrids have been using bigger batteries and only using around a 30% zone of charge state in order to greatly prolong battery degradation. I'd imagine auto makers would try to keep the batteries around the same size, but start using more like a 60 or 70% zone, though. So they'll take advantage of that higher cycle life.
You won't get an automaker to care about making a battery that lasts much beyond 10 years.
Can you elaborate on that? I was just reading the data sheet for these batteries, and these are tested with a ballistic penetration test, resulting in no fire.
I'm presuming this concern is from watching videos of elemental sodium reacting with water, which stands to reason, but I've not heard of exploding batteries
Just my impression on seeing videos of these tests on videos, which seem to result in the battery exploding violently and essentially escaping any attempt at confinement instead of catching fire. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1ya_ls1zkA
Interesting. I wonder how that compares to a similar Li-ion cell. Also it's a shame there wasn't a close-up on the markings of the battery in that video to know what it is exactly. I don't imagine all cells are equal.
The battery packs from the article, for instance, are not constructed from cylindrical cells, but from large thin and flat square cells. The cathode material appears to be unique as well, as far as I can tell; who knows what's in those blue cylindrical cells.
You can look at other videos in his channel that answer your doubts. 18650 battery cells are usually connected together into battery packs and BMS, and the industrial process is pretty standardized. Just like Li-ion you can have different cell structures, but the inside remains the same.
Actually, you replied with just what I expected. I would have been surprised if you simply had tried to reread instead of responding as you did. Enjoy the block, buddy.
Desalination of water is basically an endless supply of salt, we can't just push it back into the ocean because that increases the salt concentration in the ocean which is actually not great and when done at scale. But we didn't really have anywhere else to put the salt because there's already an abundance of it for use elsewhere but if we start using salt for Batteries it would be a great place for salt from desalination to go
can’t just push it back into the ocean because that increases the salt concentration in the ocean which is actually not great and when done at scale
Only locally, it's absolutely not a problem globally. That water will go back into the ocean soon enough. We're not generally putting wastewater in aquifers. The same is true of lithium. Both sodium and lithium form salts that dissolve in water, so over time their biggest concentration is in the water and that's why we refine it from salt flats.
I don't consider the refining of lithium to be a huge problem, other than the fact that it usually just means they're trucking a bunch of water to the desert for concentration and evaporation ponds (or worse, using the local groundwater in the desert instead of trucking in desalinated water like they should be).
To put it into perspective, high lithium brine and ore reserves contain about 14 million tons of lithium. Seawater contains over 2 trillion tons. We currently have a yearly consumption somewhere under 200 thousand tons. We won't be hitting a lithium resource crunch anytime soon, it'll just get more expensive. If we ever get hydrogen fusion running, we'd have to separate a bunch of lithium-6 which makes up under 5 percent of lithium.
It depends on how local we're talking about. If you build a pipe out of the littoral zone into the ocean with multiple outputs you likely wouldn't kill much of anything but a few plankton. The intake pipe is often worse than the output pipe for wildlife.
For a place like, say, the the Persian Gulf, that uses oil for heat desal and gets their intake and output from a sea so it's all littoral and doesn't as quickly exchange it's water with the ocean, of course it's an environmental nightmare. It's naturally saltier without desal because of the higher evaporation rate and small comparative inlet size of the straight of hormuz, but at this point its 25% saltier than the rest of the ocean thanks to that desal.
I misspelled strait, but I was referring to the shallows that contain the vast majority of ocean life due to ease of photosynthesis with littoral. Much of the Persian Gulf is within these shallows. In a lot of ways it acts like a salty inland sea that exchanges some of it's saltier water with fresher water from the ocean, but that's limited by the size of the strait of Hormuz.
Desalination is also a good way of getting lithium right now, it's just a bit less cost effective than surface mining dried oceans currently. Maybe if sodium demand also goes up, it'll be effective to capture desalination salts for both lithium and sodium.
that increases the salt concentration in the ocean which is actually not great and when done at scale.
I dealt with CaSO4 (calcium-sulfur salt) dumping before. It is considered fine (by DNV) as long as it not in brackish waters or too close to the shore or in most of the North Sea. It's just adding salt to salt water, salt is supposed to go there.
I guess if you were doing it at insane scales it would be best to run a pipeline out, run your seapumps harder, or have ships do the dumping. Not sure.
This article is saying 93% but I thought I'd seen 97 somewhere. Might have been marketing bullshit. Though this paper is 3 years old now, so there's been time for improvement. What hits the market right now may not be up to that number either, so I wouldn't disbelieve 65% either.
They'll also be quite a bit heavier. Coupled with lower charge, expect heavier devices. I don't see this happening on mobile phones, as much as I'd love it
As usual there is absolutely no mention whatsoever anywhere in any of the articles I can find or from the company themselves about what the fucking price is
Since they say they're putting them out from 48V to 800V, 48V is what most inverter systems use, so I imagine they're targetting that size for "consumers" at the single-house PV system size. If the cycle counts and low temperature charging characteristics come true, they will be popular.
American manufacturers like this like to shoot themselves in the foot by pricing their new and innovative battery technology at the datacenter customer size, find out they have no market, use up all their capital, then sell the tech to a big Chinese company like BYD or CATL. So once they've complete this lifecycle, I'd expect a couple more years before they're readily available to actual consumers. Probably expect to see them then at about LFP prices, like $90/kWh wholesale price.
they say they're putting them out from 48V to 800V, 48V is what most inverter systems use, so I imagine they're targetting that size for "consumers" at the single-house PV system size.
48 volts is also what telecom uses in their infrastructure. That's a much bigger market (and one with deeper pockets) than consumer installs.
Then why bother putting the article here? Who out of us is going to actually care. I'm looking to expand the storage on my off-grid property and I would absolutely love something other than lithium especially if it can get cheaper per kilowatt hour. I got five acres to work with so I really don't care about the density just needs a decent cycle life and price
It's a great development that we should keep our eyes on, as some years into the future it will most certainly be available for regular consumers, including you with your install.
These aren't for you to buy directly, they are for manufacturers to negotiate a price and order in bulk from the company to then integrate them into their products or production facilities.
Late last year they were talking about $40 for a KWH which compared very favourably to LifePO4 that was more like $130 at the time and Li-ion that was more like $200. However right now on alibaba you can get a 200Ah battery for about $60 and the LifePO4 300Ah are now down in the $50 range which is an incredible drop in the space of 6 months. So in practice they are less dense and more expensive but I think its new technology introduction pricing and at some point it should be about a third cheaper than LifePO4 for the same capacity, all be it a bit bigger and heavier and quite considerably cheaper than Li-ion for the same capacity.
The small 18650 and other small sized cells have started appearing on aliexpress as well so its possible to get those too butt they are a lot more expensive than a basic Li-ion 18650 at the moment for a lot less capacity. I think its mostly the bigger cells that most people interested in Sodium Ion will be wanting (home battery and grid storage solutions and some of the low/mid range cars) more than small cells since typically the smaller stuff you want to maximise capacity even if it costs a bit more and most will want li-ion and ideally the newer nearly solid state li-ion that doubles capacity per KG.
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